Three Possible Scenarios Around the District 4 Recall

With ballots already in mailboxes, come September 16th, voters in the Sunset will decide whether to recall District 4 Supervisor Engardio. The issue that sparked this recall is clear enough—Engardio’s support for last November’s Prop K, which transformed part of the Great Highway into a park. While the measure passed citywide, it was deeply unpopular in D4, where just 36% of voters supported it. That mismatch between district sentiment and Engardio’s vote has now put his seat on the line.

Here are three possible scenarios that could unfold depending on what voters decide:

Scenario A: Engardio survives the recall.

There’s a possibility that Engardio survives the recall - but to be clear - Prop K was a grave political miscalculation, and a key example of what happens when political opportunism clouds sound judgment. More importantly - the number one job of an elected official should be to represent the constituency that elects them; trust is the most sacred part of a relationship between electeds and voters. The recall is entirely a symptom of violated trust, and an outcome entirely of Supervisor Engardio’s own actions. If Supervisor Engardio survives the recall, he’d be up for re-election in November 2026. 

Scenario B: Engardio gets recalled. 

Should Supervisor Engardio get recalled by his constituents, it will trigger an appointment process whereby Mayor Daniel Lurie will get to hand-pick someone to step into the seat until a City Charter-mandated special election in June 2026. This is where things get interesting.

The Caretaker Supervisor

There has been a lot of speculation about whether or not Mayor Lurie will appoint what insiders call a “caretaker Supervisor” - someone who doesn’t have long-term political aspirations but will rather play the role of functionally keeping the seat warm until voters can elect a new representative. This is a relatively benign path for Mayor Lurie - it ensures a favorable vote on the Mayor’s policy priorities while also maintaining a somewhat neutral political position with a divided constituency of voters. There’s a danger to this path, though: if a progressive runs (and wins) an open seat in the special election in June 2026, Mayor Lurie will have functionally handed the fragile balance of power on the Board of Supervisors back to the progressives, effectively stymying his own legislative agenda. 

The Chosen Successor

An alternative approach would be Mayor Lurie hand-picking an appointee who also wants to represent District 4 long-term, and then putting the full weight of the Mayor’s Office (and his sky-high approval ratings) behind his chosen candidate. It should be noted, though: appointed incumbents by past mayors don’t have a great winning history.

Outside of District 6 Supervisor Matt Dorsey and former District 2 Supervisor Catherine Stefani, mayorally-appointed Supervisors have struggled to retain their seats in special elections. Vallie Brown, appointed in 2018 to represent District 5 by Former Mayor London Breed after she became Mayor , lost her special election to Dean Preston. Julie Christensen, appointed by Former Mayor Ed Lee in 2015 upon now-City Attorney David Chiu’s ascent to the California State Assembly, lost her special election to Aaron Peskin. In short - appointees lacking the required resiliency to eke out long-term victories have given way to some of the most progressive electeds in modern San Francisco political history. 

Should Mayor Lurie pick someone who, both on their own and with Mayoral support, coasts through to victory in June 2026 and November 2026, Mayor Lurie will have successfully protected the moderate majority on the Board of Supervisors, which is critical for continuing the progress we’ve made as a city under the Lurie administration.

Looking Ahead

Make no mistake: progressives smell an opportunity to take this seat, and are organizing to do just that. Former D4 Supervisor Gordon Mar, whom Engardio defeated in 2022 in one of the biggest upsets in modern city politics, has been telling Chinese-language media that he’s interested in running again (although he since walked this back). And an Aaron Peskin-aligned front group, SF Propel, just hosted one of its first events in the neighborhood. 

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Regardless of the outcome of the recall and Mayor Lurie’s decision path, it’s critical that District 4 remains a moderate seat on the Board of Supervisors.  Should the seat flip, the progress we’ve made—on crime, on the drug crisis, on rebuilding our economy—could quickly unravel. And at a time where things finally seem to be headed in the right direction in City Hall, San Franciscans can’t afford to go backward.